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Keytakeaway

In2025,thecompanywillfocusonthelow-temperatureproductcategory,expandintoemergingchannels,anddrivegrowththroughproductinnovation.Strategicproductsperformedexceptionallywellthroughouttheyear,withfrequentbestsellersinnewretailchannelslikeSam'sClub,contributingtodouble-digitgrowthinthelow-temperaturecategory—particularlyinpremiumfreshmilkandspecialtyyogurtsegments.Theproductstructurewasoptimizedandupgraded,withthegrossprofitmarginincreasingby0.82percentagepointto29.18%.Additionally,impairmentandnon-operatinglossesdecreased,drivinga1.47percentagepointincreaseintheannualnetprofitmargin.Lookingaheadto2026,weanticipatecontinuedgrowthinthelow-temperatureproductcategoryandgradualstabilizationintheroom-temperaturecategory.Thelow-costadvantageofrawmilkandproductmixupgradeswilldrivegrossmarginexpansion,whileimpairmentitemsareexpectedtofurtherdecline.Weareconfidentinachievingthe"Five-YearPlanperiod"targetofdoublingtheprofitmarginaheadofschedulethisyear.

Event

Thecompanyreleasedits2025annualreport.

In2025,thecompanyreportedoperatingrevenueofRMB11.233billion,up5.33%year-on-year;netprofitattributabletotheparentcompanyofRMB731million,up35.98%year-on-year;andnon-GAAPnetprofitattributabletotheparentcompanyofRMB774million,up33.76%year-on-year.

InQ42025,thecompanyreportedoperatingrevenueofRMB2.800billion,up11.28%year-on-year;netprofitattributabletoshareholdersofRMB108million,up69.29%year-on-year;andadjustednetprofitattributabletoshareholdersofRMB127million,up76.99%year-on-year.

QuickTake

Low-temperatureperformanceremainsoutstanding,withstructuralupgradesboostinggrowthmomentum.

In2025,thecompanycontinuedtofocusonthelow-temperatureproductcategory,maintainingits"dualstrengthinfreshandyogurt"developmentstrategywhileincreasingproductinnovation.Bothlow-temperaturefreshmilkandlow-temperatureyogurtachieveddouble-digitgrowth.Premiumfreshmilkandthe"Today'sFreshMilk"linealsosawdouble-digitgrowth,withspecialtyyogurtgrowingover30%year-over-year,particularlytheHuorunproductline.Intermsofroom-temperatureproducts,thecompanycontinuedtooptimizeitsbusinessstrategy.XiajinproductswereintroducedtoSam'sClub,andrawmilkwassuppliedtoCottiCoffee,withtheoveralldeclineexpectedtonarrow.Thecompanycontinuedtofocusonlaunchingnewproducts.Sam'sClubcustomizeditemssuchasguavayogurt,caramelpudding,andJuepinperformedexceptionallywellinmonthlysales.TheHuorunLightMealBottlemaintainedstrongmomentuminhealth-focusedandfunctionalproductdevelopment.Throughouttheyear,newproductsconsistentlycontributedover10%oftotalrevenue.Bycategory,liquidmilkrevenuein2025reachedRMB10.495billion,up6.70%year-on-year,whilemilkpowderrevenuewasRMB87million,up21.56%year-on-year.

Intermsofchannels,theself-servicesubscriptionbusinessenhanceddeliveryefficiency,the"milktapping"atflagshipstoresmetthepersonalizeddemandsofyoungconsumers,andtheDTCmodel'ssharecontinuedtorisesteadily.Sam'sClubandothernewretailcustomizationsarefullycommittedtodevelopingmultiplebest-sellingproducts.In2025,theproportionofdirectsaleschannelsroseto63.77%(ayear-on-yearincreaseof5.40percentagepoints).DirectsalesrevenuereachedRMB7.163billion,up15.07%year-on-year,whiledistributionrevenuestoodatRMB3.418billion,down7.17%year-on-year.Annuale-commercerevenuereachedRMB1.235billion,representingayear-on-yearincreaseof6.43%.Lookingatthecompany'sannualperformancebyregion,theSouthwest,EastChina,NorthChina,Northwest,andotherregionsgeneratedrevenuesofRMB3.830billion,RMB3.524billion,RMB918million,RMB1.266billion,andRMB1.695billion,respectively,withyear-over-yearchangesof+0.05%,+14.95%,-0.50%,+0.0%,and+7.14%.

Low-pricedmilkandproductmixdrivegrossmarginimprovement,withnetprofitabilitycontinuingtostrengthen.

In2025,thecompany'sgrossmarginwas29.18%,up0.82percentagepointyear-over-year,whilethenetprofitmarginattributabletotheparentcompanywas6.51%,up1.47percentagepointsyear-over-year.InQ42024,thegrossmarginwas28.31%,up2.32percentagepointsyear-over-year,andthenetprofitmarginattributabletotheparentcompanywas3.87%,up1.33percentagepointsyear-over-year.

Intermsofgrossmargin,ontheonehand,milkpriceswillbeatthebottomofthecyclein2025,optimizingrawmaterialcosts;ontheotherhand,thecompanyisoptimizingitsstructuretoincreasetheproportionofhigher-marginlow-temperatureproductsanddirectsaleschannels,withhigh-endfreshmilkandhigh-endyogurtshowingimpressiverevenuegrowth.In2024,thegrossmarginfordirectsaleschannelswas31.31%(+0.01pct),whilethegrossmarginfordistributionchannelswas29.15%(+1.58pcts).

Ontheexpenseside,thesellingexpenseratioin2025is16.11%,up0.55percentagepointyear-on-year,whiletheadministrativeexpenseratiois3.18%,down0.39percentagepointyear-on-year.In2025,thecompany'spromotionandadvertisingexpenseswereRMB947million(+8.8%)andRMB316million(+30.08%),respectively.Intermsofadministrativeexpenses,theadministrativeexpenseratiodecreasedby0.39percentagepointto3.18%in2025.

Focusingonthefive-yearplanandadvancingtheimplementationofthe"FreshStrategy,"thetargetofdoublingthenetprofitmarginmaybeachievedaheadofschedule.

In2025,thecompanywillcontinuetoadheretotheprincipleof"upholdingcorevaluesandfosteringlong-termgrowth,"concentratingonstrategicsectors,activelyexploringsecondarygrowthopportunities,implementingstrategiesmoreeffectively,strengtheningcorecompetencies,andstrivingforsustainedrevenuegrowthalongsideimprovednetprofitmargins.Thiswillpropelthecompanyintoanewphaseofhigh-quality,sustainabledevelopment.In2023,NewHopeDairyunveiledits"Five-YearStrategy"withthegoalof"expandingandstrengtheningcorebusinesses,enhancingcorporatevalue,anddoublingnetprofitmarginswithinfiveyears."Aligningwiththisstrategy,thecompanyhasdeliveredoutstandingperformanceandisontracktoachievethenetprofitmargindoublingtargetaheadofscheduleby2026.Additionally,theshareoflow-temperatureproductscontinuestorise,withproductinnovationremainingakeydriverofthecompany'sgrowth.

Earningsforecast:ThecompanyisexpectedtogeneraterevenuesofRMB12.057billion,RMB12.955billion,andRMB13.908billionin2026-2028,withnetprofitsattributabletoshareholdersofRMB884million,RMB1.072billion,andRMB1.254billion,correspondingtoEPSof1.03,1.25,and1.46yuan,andP/Emultiplesof17.33X,14.29X,and12.22X,respectively.

Risks

1.Foodsafety:Foodsafetyisalwaysthefocusofconsumers.Althoughthecompanyhascontinuouslyimprovedproductionqualitycontrollevels,sinceitinvolvesmanylinksandenterprises,therearestillfoodqualityandsafetyrisks.2.Riskofrapidincreaseinrawmilkprices:Directmaterialsaccountforarelativelyhighproportionofdairyproductioncosts,withrawmilkandmilkpowdercomprisingasignificantportion.Inrecentyears,majorrawmilkimportingregionshavegraduallyreducedtheirproductioncapacity.Combinedwithpersistentlyhighfeedcosts,anyunexpectedincreaseinrawmilkpricescouldnegativelyimpactcorporateprofitability.3.Riskofintensifiedindustrycompetition:Inrecentyears,domesticdairyconsumptionhasremainedrelativelyweak.Tomaintainmarketshare,brandshavesignificantlyincreasedspending,leadingtofrequentpricecompetition.Withouteffectivebusinessstrategies,thecompanymayfaceriskssuchasdecliningmarketshare,deterioratingoperatingperformance,andslowergrowth.

【免责声明】本文仅代表第三方观点
，不代表和讯网立场 。投资者据此操作，风险请自担
。 （